Thursday, October 16, 2014

Can Apple Win Back Market Share from Android?

Android has roughly 70% market share in most countries. Apple hovers around 30%. What's the outlook for Apple? Can it hope to make a dent in Android's overdog status? Can it hope to reverse a longstanding trend toward Android dominance?

I think it can, and will, starting early in 2015.

Apple has announced its newest smartphones will ship in 36 more countries by the end of October, and the company is on track to be in 115 countries by the end of the year.

New markets (and rollout dates) for iOS include:
  • October 17: China, India and Monaco
  • October 23: Israel
  • October 24: Czech Republic, French West Indies, Greenland, Malta, Poland, Reunion Island and South Africa
  • October 30: Bahrain and Kuwait
  • October 31: Albania, Bosnia, Croatia, Estonia, Greece, Guam, Hungary, Iceland, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Macau, Macedonia, Mexico, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, South Korea, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and Thailand
Morgan Stanley’s Apple analyst, Katy Huberty, surveyed smartphone buyers in China recently and found a huge jump in purchase intentions for Apple’s iPhones in China, going from 24% a year ago to 50% today. At the same time, Samsung purchase intentions dropped from 30% to 13%, indicating a likely win for Apple in China.

Given the size of the Chinese and Indian markets, and considering the ultra-strong demand for iPhone 6 in China (now said to exceed 20 million pre-orders, according to a report on China's Tencent), it appears Apple could in fact be setting the stage for a major market-share upset over Android.

BCN, a Japanese company that tracks consumer goods, found that 22 of the 25 top selling smartphones for the week of September 22 to 28 were iPhones. So even in Japan (where Apple has seen a drop in market share), it appears Android faces tough competition, with Apple likely gaining back some of the market share it lost in the past year.

Let us also not forget that the race isn't just about market penetration numbers. It's also about profitability. Apple has a lonstanding tradition of kicking the market's ass in profitability. Four years ago, Apple had 7% of the computer market but 35% of the industry's profits. Something like this will happen in smartphones as well. Apple could well end up with 30% of the market but 50% of the profits. That will matter hugely to company performance and investor happiness.

As I write this (10:45 Eastern US, 16 Oct 2014), AAPL stock is $96.02. This is a bargain price, IMHO. I would be a strong buyer at this level.

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